Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5456 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 5456 SkyWest	SFO 08:55	EUG 10:38	14%	7%	1.0%	no record
OO 5453 SkyWest	SFO 13:50	EUG 15:44	25%	12%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	2h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 07m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	7h 03m	99%	83%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 40m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	7h 57m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656	3h 23m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	6h 42m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON