Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1149 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1149 SFO 07:00 → EWR 15:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2480 SFO 13:17 → EWR 22:14 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	8%	3%	1.1%	91%
UA 517 United	SFO 06:09	EWR 15:03	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 00:01	EWR 08:29	11%	2%	1.1%	75%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	19%	6%	1.1%	83%
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	23%	9%	0.9%	67%
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	25%	9%	0.9%	70%
UA 2467 United	SFO 10:11	EWR 18:44	33%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:15	EWR 20:10	34%	12%	0.9%	76%worse than usual
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	36%	12%	0.9%	57%
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 13:17	EWR 22:14	36%	12%	0.9%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 27m	95%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 37m Denver	DEN 10:12 → EWR 16:16UA 2381	8h 16m	98%	76%
United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	46m Houston	IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59UA 1886	8h 14m	82%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON