tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 16:10 FAT 17:28 27% 13% 0.8% 62%
OO 5566 SkyWest SFO 10:12 FAT 11:20 29% 13% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 15:43 → FAT 16:32DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 6h 37m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14UA 5655 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → FAT 11:31UA 5299 · flown by SkyWest 5h 31m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → FAT 12:36AA 2396 6h 46m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SFO 08:15 → PHX 10:22AA 2414 3h 51m Phoenix PHX 14:13 → FAT 16:13AA 1919 7h 58m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 1h 12m Denver DEN 15:35 → FAT 17:01UA 5978 · flown by SkyWest 6h 21m 85% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327 1h 40m Seattle SEA 12:55 → FAT 15:01AS 383 6h 01m 90% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 11:35 → SAN 13:20AS 3310 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m San Diego SAN 14:24 → FAT 15:52AS 3388 · flown by SkyWest 4h 17m 69% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON