Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kalispell on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	2h 04m Portland	PDX 11:06 → FCA 13:30AS 2044 · flown by Horizon	5h 10m	97%	87%
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:50 → SEA 18:00AS 1340	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → FCA 23:59AS 2121 · flown by Horizon	7h 09m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 13:33 → FCA 15:54AS 2105 · flown by Horizon	5h 54m	95%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 13:33 → FCA 15:54AS 2105 · flown by Horizon	4h 36m	53%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON