tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 00:05, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2431 United SFO 07:02 FLL 15:42 8% 3% 0.6% no record
B6 578 JetBlue Flight history → SFO 10:30 FLL 19:15 26% 9% 0.7% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 10h 03m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 27m Houston IAH 07:35 → FLL 11:22UA 2261 8h 17m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 52m Houston IAH 10:26 → FLL 14:20UA 2670 10h 35m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 11m Denver DEN 09:46 → FLL 15:46UA 1214 7h 46m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 38m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 16m Houston IAH 12:11 → FLL 16:01UA 1982 8h 01m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11UA 686 3h 09m Houston IAH 16:20 → FLL 20:07UA 277 10h 02m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 1h 41m Denver DEN 16:04 → FLL 22:07UA 1374 8h 27m 95% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:15 → EWR 16:53UA 435 52m Newark EWR 17:45 → FLL 20:41UA 2096 9h 26m 71% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON