Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 6014 at 08:10, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 6014 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:10	GEG 10:27	11%	3%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620	1h 42m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon	4h 57m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 22m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	2h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503	6h 13m	98%	85%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 40m Denver	DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295	7h 37m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:20 → LAX 10:53DL 1421	2h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	6h 15m	97%	84%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 28m Portland	PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250	4h 25m	96%	83%
American Details →	SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Phoenix	PHX 10:22 → GEG 13:21AA 540	7h 31m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:08 → SNA 08:49AS 3440 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Santa Ana	SNA 11:25 → GEG 13:59AS 2020 · flown by Horizon	6h 51m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 13:35 → GEG 14:38AS 2349 · flown by Horizon	4h 20m	54%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON