Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1509 at 16:45, 25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1509 SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 811 SFO 08:30 → HNL 11:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1509 United Flight history →	SFO 16:45	HNL 19:25	25%	10%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
UA 1175 United Flight history →	SFO 09:20	HNL 11:43	28%	8%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
UA 2380 United Flight history →	SFO 10:45	HNL 13:20	33%	13%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
UA 300 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	HNL 16:18	33%	10%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AS 811 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:30	HNL 11:10	37%	10%	2.3%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34AS 693	1h 17m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:51 → HNL 11:40AS 1057	7h 40m	97%	53%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:03 → LIH 09:43AS 789	1h 31m Lihue	LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054	7h 50m	89%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON