Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2861 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2861 SFO 06:45 → IAD 15:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1791 SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2861 United	SFO 06:45	IAD 15:04	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 599 United	SFO 08:11	IAD 16:30	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	19%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	21%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:51	IAD 21:12	22%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	22%	7%	0.6%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 07:17 → IAD 10:46DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	7h 24m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	7h 40m	94%	79%
United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	46m Houston	IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549	7h 43m	82%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON