Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2168 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2168 SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1387 SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2168 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	IAH 10:55	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 686 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	IAH 13:11	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 505 United Flight history →	SFO 00:05	IAH 05:58	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 604 United Flight history →	SFO 00:45	IAH 06:34	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	SFO 08:55	IAH 15:07	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1649 United	SFO 17:12	IAH 23:15	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2305 United Flight history →	SFO 16:40	IAH 22:52	19%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 2831 United	SFO 14:35	IAH 20:39	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1259 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAH 16:52	23%	6%	0.6%	61%
UA 1387 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	IAH 18:27	23%	7%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON