tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Indianapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2274 United SFO 10:05 IND 17:52 22% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456 8h 06m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35AA 2161 3h 44m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 45m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 17m Houston IAH 07:25 → IND 10:54UA 6162 · flown by Mesa 7h 49m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 6h 33m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522 6h 35m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 7h 25m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120 10h 07m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 17:35 → IND 19:10DL 2979 8h 20m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 7h 05m 70% 61%
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:01 → IND 21:25AA 2784 7h 01m 63% 44%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 51m Dulles IAD 22:16 → IND 23:59UA 4021 · flown by Mesa 7h 44m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON