Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1593 at 13:26, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1593 United	SFO 13:26	JAC 16:42	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282	5h 25m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:39 → JAC 16:47DL 509	5h 52m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SFO 13:25 → SLC 16:15DL 902	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest	5h 12m	96%	85%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 40m Denver	DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193	6h 46m	98%	85%
United Details →	SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127	2h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 10:25 → JAC 13:54UA 1041	6h 54m	99%	81%
United Details →	SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604	1h 57m Denver	DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200	6h 13m	96%	80%
American Details →	SFO 06:55 → LAX 08:27AA 1097	1h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 09:57 → JAC 13:26AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	91%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON