Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 405 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 405 SFO 07:00 → JFK 15:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 416 SFO 14:35 → JFK 23:20 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 405 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	JFK 15:43	4%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 234 American Flight history →	SFO 06:15	JFK 15:02	4%	2%	1.2%	92%
AS 211 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:18	JFK 14:32	8%	2%	0.9%	92%
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 06:00	JFK 14:38	10%	2%	0.8%	89%
AS 20 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	JFK 16:08	11%	3%	0.9%	80%
B6 616 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 00:02	JFK 08:34	11%	3%	1.0%	85%
DL 606 Delta	SFO 09:16	JFK 17:40	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:05	JFK 00:29	14%	6%	0.8%	77%
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 08:00	JFK 16:37	15%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 631 Delta	SFO 13:20	JFK 21:44	20%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 148 American Flight history →	SFO 14:45	JFK 23:42	20%	8%	1.1%	73%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:30	JFK 20:19	21%	9%	0.8%	76%
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 13:15	JFK 22:02	21%	7%	0.8%	83%
AA 16 American Flight history →	SFO 10:15	JFK 19:04	22%	9%	1.1%	75%
AA 166 American Flight history →	SFO 12:10	JFK 21:00	23%	10%	1.1%	74%
AS 42 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:38	JFK 22:26	23%	8%	0.8%	68%
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 14:35	JFK 23:20	26%	8%	0.8%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	7h 17m	91%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON