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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30% (calm day: 18%). Best bet: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:23, 65% on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 693 Alaska Flight history → SFO 07:00 KOA 09:34 7% 2% 0.6% 96%
UA 1721 United Flight history → SFO 08:10 KOA 10:40 9% 3% 0.5% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 1h 21m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42UA 2373 8h 42m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 3h 40m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 16m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656 3h 32m Seattle SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238 11h 47m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 09:23 → OGG 11:47AS 979 2h 16m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 8h 16m 91% 67%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:55 → SEA 08:54AS 620 1h 04m Seattle SEA 09:58 → KOA 13:02AS 518 9h 07m 83% 65%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 08:30 → HNL 11:10AS 811 2h 18m Honolulu HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:26AS 1138 8h 56m 96% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 10:41 → LAX 12:19AA 6428 · flown by SkyWest 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 13:30 → KOA 16:10AA 59 8h 29m 75% 56%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 08:30 → HNL 11:10AS 811 52m Honolulu HNL 12:02 → KOA 13:00AS 1108 7h 30m 48% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON