Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4314 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4314 SFO 05:06 → LAS 06:46 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 776 SFO 13:59 → LAS 15:32 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4314 Southwest	SFO 05:06	LAS 06:46	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 1711 United	SFO 07:00	LAS 08:44	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1627 United	SFO 08:32	LAS 10:16	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 611 United Flight history →	SFO 10:42	LAS 12:28	24%	8%	0.6%	80%
UA 751 United Flight history →	SFO 17:37	LAS 19:27	27%	12%	0.6%	72%
WN 4043 Southwest	SFO 10:46	LAS 12:26	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2352 United	SFO 14:24	LAS 16:19	29%	14%	0.8%	no record
AS 718 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:47	LAS 12:19	30%	7%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
UA 1777 United	SFO 12:22	LAS 14:06	31%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 2404 Southwest	SFO 13:46	LAS 15:25	32%	12%	0.9%	no record
AS 1362 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 17:00	LAS 18:33	33%	13%	0.7%	72%
F9 4158 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 11:20	LAS 13:10	36%	15%	1.5%	67%
F9 2486 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 14:23	LAS 16:12	37%	18%	1.7%	68%
AS 776 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:59	LAS 15:32	39%	12%	1.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON