Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2486 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2486 SFO 06:11 → LAX 07:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1499 SFO 12:20 → LAX 13:39 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2486 Southwest	SFO 06:11	LAX 07:39	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2127 United Flight history →	SFO 06:00	LAX 07:39	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 1598 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	LAX 08:30	6%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:20	LAX 10:53	10%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 1097 American Flight history →	SFO 06:55	LAX 08:27	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 1260 United Flight history →	SFO 06:55	LAX 08:25	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1275 Southwest	SFO 09:56	LAX 11:23	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1457 United	SFO 08:53	LAX 10:23	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6274 SkyWest	SFO 09:27	LAX 10:58	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 08:52	LAX 10:27	20%	6%	1.4%	70%
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:30	LAX 10:07	20%	4%	0.8%	64%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	LAX 15:35	21%	8%	0.6%	78%
UA 2282 United	SFO 17:57	LAX 19:37	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1506 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	LAX 13:55	22%	8%	0.6%	71%
UA 1754 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	LAX 18:05	23%	10%	0.5%	73%
DL 2114 Delta	SFO 16:58	LAX 18:23	24%	10%	0.8%	no record
OO 6277 SkyWest	SFO 12:04	LAX 13:48	25%	10%	0.8%	no record
DL 2112 Delta	SFO 12:08	LAX 13:33	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1022 American	SFO 13:27	LAX 15:00	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 2858 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 11:57	LAX 13:33	25%	10%	1.3%	69%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	SFO 10:22	LAX 11:52	27%	7%	0.6%	75%
WN 3399 Southwest	SFO 15:16	LAX 16:43	27%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 4319 Southwest	SFO 11:31	LAX 12:58	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
OO 6276 SkyWest	SFO 16:12	LAX 17:43	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 689 Delta	SFO 14:28	LAX 15:51	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
OO 249 SkyWest	SFO 10:20	LAX 11:51	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:09	LAX 11:49	30%	10%	0.8%	59%
WN 2881 Southwest	SFO 17:41	LAX 19:08	30%	13%	0.6%	no record
AS 1407 Alaska	SFO 17:30	LAX 18:49	30%	10%	0.7%	no record
AS 520 Alaska	SFO 15:35	LAX 16:56	32%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 200 Alaska	SFO 10:03	LAX 11:24	33%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 1499 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 12:20	LAX 13:39	35%	7%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON