tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:22, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719 7h 22m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 50m Houston IAH 07:58 → LGA 12:48UA 1143 9h 43m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 49m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 14m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 3h 12m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 9h 50m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 13m Houston IAH 09:47 → LGA 14:29UA 678 10h 44m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 9h 37m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 53m Detroit DTW 14:02 → LGA 15:53DL 2602 7h 13m 93% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SFO 10:30 → FLL 19:15B6 578 1h 00m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:15 → LGA 23:14B6 572 9h 44m 74% 42%
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:04 → LGA 22:49AA 2570 8h 25m 66% 42%
AmericanDetails → SFO 08:39 → MIA 17:26AA 2799 47m Miami MIA 18:13 → LGA 21:21AA 2271 9h 42m 69% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON