Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 789 SFO 07:03 → LIH 09:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1684 SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 789 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:03	LIH 09:43	11%	2%	0.7%	97%
UA 1111 United Flight history →	SFO 08:52	LIH 11:52	13%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 1684 United Flight history →	SFO 16:55	LIH 19:42	19%	5%	0.7%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON