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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2072 United SFO 10:53 MCI 16:30 20% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:03DL 2789 3h 59m Minneapolis MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:34DL 1349 9h 12m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 07m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 52m Houston IAH 08:00 → MCI 10:07UA 2009 8h 02m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159 5h 30m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → MCI 15:45UA 5426 · flown by SkyWest 7h 45m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:48 → DFW 13:35AA 304 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:05 → MCI 18:46AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 8h 58m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:39 → MSP 12:19DL 2178 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 35m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:20 → DTW 13:54DL 772 2h 00m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 8h 34m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON