Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2322 United Flight history →	SFO 10:37	MFR 12:04	26%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 5706 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:22	MFR 17:51	28%	8%	0.9%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	93%
Alaska Details →	SFO 08:30 → LAX 10:07AS 1329	3h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 13:15 → MFR 15:14AS 2328 · flown by Horizon	6h 44m	99%	92%
Alaska Details →	SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50AS 235	3h 55m Portland	PDX 17:45 → MFR 18:48AS 2163 · flown by Horizon	6h 40m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:45 → SEA 15:47AS 68	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	5h 28m	94%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:02 → PDX 16:47AS 1302	58m Portland	PDX 17:45 → MFR 18:48AS 2163 · flown by Horizon	3h 46m	67%	57%
Alaska Details →	SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50AS 235	1h 02m Portland	PDX 14:52 → MFR 15:54AS 2125 · flown by Horizon	3h 46m	67%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON