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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2799 SFO 08:39 → MIA 17:26 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 773 SFO 11:33 → MIA 20:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 2799 American Flight history → SFO 08:39 MIA 17:26 23% 7% 0.8% 72%
UA 1458 United SFO 12:17 MIA 21:07 28% 8% 0.6% no record
AA 773 American SFO 11:33 MIA 20:20 30% 11% 0.9% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 47m Houston IAH 07:55 → MIA 11:33UA 2753 8h 28m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 09:16 → MIA 16:47AA 1968 7h 57m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 05m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 47m 97% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON