Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5422 at 12:15, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5422 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:15	MSO 15:38	36%	13%	0.5%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 45m	99%	93%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 53m Portland	PDX 10:55 → MSO 13:24AS 2146 · flown by Horizon	5h 04m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	7h 38m	98%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 53m Denver	DEN 11:28 → MSO 13:38UA 2357	7h 38m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:19 → SEA 17:20AS 630	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon	6h 36m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 12:45 → MSO 15:07AS 660	5h 07m	88%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SFO 13:45 → SEA 15:47AS 68	1h 07m Seattle	SEA 16:54 → MSO 19:19AS 2123 · flown by Horizon	4h 34m	67%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON