Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2178 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2178 SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2078 SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2178 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	MSP 11:36	3%	1%	0.5%	94%
DL 2789 Delta Flight history →	SFO 00:22	MSP 06:04	6%	2%	0.4%	87%
OO 5951 SkyWest	SFO 17:02	MSP 22:58	14%	8%	0.5%	no record
DL 2159 Delta Flight history →	SFO 15:27	MSP 21:00	18%	6%	0.5%	76%
UA 1050 United	SFO 10:25	MSP 16:17	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2078 Delta Flight history →	SFO 12:42	MSP 18:19	22%	6%	0.5%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON