tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 00:05, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching New Orleans on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2119 United SFO 07:19 MSY 13:48 7% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1244 United SFO 16:34 MSY 23:03 24% 10% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 22m Houston IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46UA 491 6h 41m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 7h 25m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 6h 39m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 11m Houston IAH 09:45 → MSY 11:01UA 575 8h 16m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 57m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:48 → MSY 16:13UA 2738 9h 13m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678 8h 34m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 3h 22m Denver DEN 17:45 → MSY 21:34UA 1541 8h 54m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON