Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2010 SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 573 SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2010 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	OGG 10:45	15%	5%	0.6%	92%
UA 1749 United Flight history →	SFO 16:40	OGG 19:17	16%	6%	0.6%	90%
AS 979 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:23	OGG 11:47	18%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
UA 2623 United Flight history →	SFO 14:05	OGG 16:36	21%	7%	0.5%	86%
UA 573 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	OGG 12:34	22%	6%	0.6%	87%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 08:30 → HNL 11:10AS 811	1h 21m Honolulu	HNL 12:31 → OGG 13:15AS 1106	7h 45m	85%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON