tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:22, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Omaha on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 7h 50m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 41m Denver DEN 10:16 → OMA 13:04UA 1633 6h 04m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 2h 51m Detroit DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 00m Houston IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:11UA 6188 · flown by Mesa 7h 11m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 9h 48m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 1h 53m Houston IAH 20:20 → OMA 22:45UA 1216 8h 30m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604 3h 42m Denver DEN 18:05 → OMA 20:42UA 1436 8h 02m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 50m Seattle SEA 09:03 → OMA 14:16AS 312 6h 13m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON