tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 2249 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SFO 08:20 PAE 10:25 16% 4% 0.0% 84%
AS 2083 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SFO 20:07 PAE 22:12 54% 28% 4.0% 46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 50m Portland PDX 10:52 → PAE 11:53AS 2126 · flown by Horizon 4h 33m 97% 86%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:51 → SNA 15:32AS 3216 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Santa Ana SNA 18:56 → PAE 21:40AS 2116 · flown by Horizon 7h 49m 97% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 12:20 → LAX 13:39AS 1499 2h 14m Los Angeles LAX 15:53 → PAE 18:36AS 2279 · flown by Horizon 6h 16m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:59 → LAS 15:32AS 776 1h 11m Las Vegas LAS 16:43 → PAE 19:19AS 366 5h 20m 71% 56%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 16:28 → SNA 18:09AS 3492 · flown by SkyWest 47m Santa Ana SNA 18:56 → PAE 21:40AS 2116 · flown by Horizon 5h 12m 59% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON