Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3905 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 3905 SFO 06:09 → PDX 08:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 235 SFO 12:08 → PDX 13:50 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3905 United	SFO 06:09	PDX 08:15	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1410 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	PDX 09:02	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 5777 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:14	PDX 10:11	16%	5%	0.6%	69%
AS 1411 Alaska	SFO 08:23	PDX 10:09	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2624 United	SFO 10:08	PDX 12:04	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1812 United Flight history →	SFO 16:40	PDX 18:36	19%	8%	0.6%	74%
UA 2851 United Flight history →	SFO 12:37	PDX 14:33	19%	8%	0.6%	88%
AS 1302 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:02	PDX 16:47	30%	6%	0.7%	76%
AS 235 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 12:08	PDX 13:50	34%	6%	0.6%	62%
AS 2023 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 22:08	PDX 23:52	46%	31%	6.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON