Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2161 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2161 SFO 06:00 → PHL 14:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1298 SFO 12:45 → PHL 21:12 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2161 American Flight history →	SFO 06:00	PHL 14:35	6%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 2824 United	SFO 08:56	PHL 17:22	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2722 American Flight history →	SFO 07:41	PHL 16:14	14%	3%	0.7%	71%
AA 1845 American	SFO 09:47	PHL 18:21	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1298 United	SFO 12:45	PHL 21:12	24%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 22m	95%	88%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772	1h 51m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	8h 03m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON