Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4663 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4663 SFO 06:46 → PHX 08:47 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2638 SFO 13:18 → PHX 15:28 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4663 Southwest	SFO 06:46	PHX 08:47	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 6404 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 05:50	PHX 08:01	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2374 United Flight history →	SFO 08:04	PHX 10:10	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2414 American Flight history →	SFO 08:15	PHX 10:22	12%	5%	0.6%	84%
OO 5460 SkyWest	SFO 12:29	PHX 14:43	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2334 American	SFO 12:20	PHX 14:28	24%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 574 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	PHX 18:39	24%	10%	0.6%	73%
AA 1837 American	SFO 15:56	PHX 18:05	26%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 3783 Southwest	SFO 12:21	PHX 14:30	30%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3346 Southwest	SFO 15:56	PHX 18:06	32%	11%	0.6%	no record
F9 2638 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 13:18	PHX 15:28	36%	15%	1.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON