Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 5214 at 10:10, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 5214 SkyWest	SFO 10:10	PSC 12:13	23%	11%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:47 → PSC 11:38DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	5h 48m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	2h 30m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PSC 11:43DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	5h 48m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	SFO 15:50 → SEA 18:00AS 1340	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → PSC 22:37AS 2417 · flown by Horizon	6h 47m	100%	62%
Alaska Details →	SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620	3h 07m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → PSC 12:19AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	6h 16m	100%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON