Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 717 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 717 SFO 08:29 → PSP 10:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 3164 SFO 14:11 → PSP 15:51 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 717 United Flight history →	SFO 08:29	PSP 10:09	9%	4%	0.7%	95%
UA 342 United	SFO 12:40	PSP 14:20	21%	11%	0.7%	no record
OO 3420 SkyWest	SFO 11:46	PSP 13:26	27%	12%	0.8%	no record
OO 3164 SkyWest	SFO 14:11	PSP 15:51	27%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON