Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2153 SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2418 SFO 16:29 → RDM 18:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2153 United Flight history →	SFO 10:28	RDM 12:12	20%	4%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
AS 3361 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:42	RDM 18:25	22%	8%	1.0%	76%
UA 2418 United	SFO 16:29	RDM 18:10	25%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON