Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2080 at 00:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2080 SFO 00:04 → RDU 08:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2199 SFO 14:26 → RDU 22:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2080 United Flight history →	SFO 00:04	RDU 08:12	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 2816 United	SFO 08:10	RDU 16:34	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2199 United	SFO 14:26	RDU 22:47	23%	8%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	7h 20m	96%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	7h 16m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789	56m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31DL 2783	7h 09m	93%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON