Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5394 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 5394 SFO 08:13 → RNO 09:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1845 SFO 10:36 → RNO 11:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5394 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:13	RNO 09:27	12%	4%	0.9%	88%
UA 2690 United	SFO 16:30	RNO 17:44	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1845 United	SFO 10:36	RNO 11:49	24%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON