Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3785 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3785 SFO 06:26 → SAN 08:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1085 SFO 14:41 → SAN 16:22 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3785 Southwest	SFO 06:26	SAN 08:07	6%	1%	1.1%	no record
UA 1980 United Flight history →	SFO 06:38	SAN 08:22	9%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 3236 Southwest	SFO 08:41	SAN 10:21	13%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 426 Alaska	SFO 07:06	SAN 08:40	15%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 444 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	SAN 09:59	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
AS 424 Alaska	SFO 08:21	SAN 09:54	21%	5%	1.1%	no record
OO 3007 SkyWest	SFO 09:27	SAN 11:12	23%	11%	1.5%	no record
UA 1257 United Flight history →	SFO 12:21	SAN 14:08	28%	13%	0.6%	67%
UA 2177 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	SAN 11:51	29%	12%	0.6%	68%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	SFO 16:47	SAN 18:39	29%	12%	0.6%	59%
UA 1668 United Flight history →	SFO 14:24	SAN 16:19	30%	12%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
WN 4325 Southwest	SFO 12:06	SAN 13:45	34%	14%	0.9%	no record
OO 3099 SkyWest	SFO 15:23	SAN 17:08	34%	17%	1.6%	no record
AS 3310 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 11:35	SAN 13:20	36%	15%	1.4%	77%worse than usual
WN 1647 Southwest	SFO 10:56	SAN 12:36	36%	15%	0.9%	no record
WN 3787 Southwest	SFO 16:01	SAN 17:41	38%	15%	1.0%	no record
AS 3490 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:36	SAN 12:21	39%	17%	1.3%	66%
F9 3382 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 16:15	SAN 18:03	39%	20%	4.2%	47%
WN 1085 Southwest	SFO 14:41	SAN 16:22	39%	16%	0.9%	no record
AS 2058 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 18:42	SAN 20:21	68%	24%	4.8%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON