tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Phoenix, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Antonio on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2365 United SFO 12:20 SAT 18:06 22% 8% 0.6% no record
UA 2281 United SFO 16:23 SAT 22:07 22% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 9h 27m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123 5h 46m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604 3h 01m Houston IAH 09:35 → SAT 10:47UA 1371 8h 02m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 12m Houston IAH 07:20 → SAT 08:27UA 2250 6h 22m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 9h 11m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625 5h 43m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:45 → SAT 15:56UA 2030 8h 56m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:48 → DFW 13:35AA 304 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:24 → SAT 18:37AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 8h 49m 100% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON