Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 25–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1578 SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 5464 SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1578 United Flight history →	SFO 10:29	SBA 11:52	25%	9%	0.7%	81%
OO 5936 SkyWest	SFO 16:21	SBA 17:45	26%	11%	1.3%	no record
UA 5464 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:50	SBA 15:17	30%	14%	1.2%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON