Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2721 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–51%.

Safest bet that day DL 2721 SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 656 SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2721 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:55	SEA 08:05	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
AS 620 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:03	SEA 08:13	13%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:30	SEA 15:47	21%	7%	0.7%	77%
OO 5790 SkyWest	SFO 07:40	SEA 09:51	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1327 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:00	SEA 11:15	30%	7%	0.8%	69%
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:29	SEA 19:44	30%	10%	0.6%	68%
DL 1053 Delta	SFO 10:24	SEA 12:31	31%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2744 United Flight history →	SFO 12:10	SEA 14:30	32%	9%	0.5%	72%
AS 1340 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:50	SEA 18:00	34%	9%	0.8%	69%
OO 5842 SkyWest	SFO 14:09	SEA 16:21	34%	11%	0.6%	no record
AS 68 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:45	SEA 15:47	37%	7%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
UA 500 United	SFO 10:07	SEA 12:18	37%	8%	0.6%	no record
AS 630 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:19	SEA 17:20	38%	10%	0.8%	21%
AS 656 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:18	SEA 12:27	51%	10%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON