Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1331 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1331 SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 902 SFO 13:25 → SLC 16:15 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1331 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:50	SLC 08:40	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
OO 5908 SkyWest	SFO 09:37	SLC 12:40	11%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:55	SLC 12:44	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 520 United	SFO 14:13	SLC 17:10	26%	10%	0.5%	no record
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:25	SLC 16:15	30%	7%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON