tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5220 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5220 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 08:17 SMF 09:25 12% 4% 0.9% 83%
OO 4790 SkyWest SFO 12:22 SMF 13:17 27% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 26m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 1h 52m Los Angeles LAX 09:31 → SMF 11:18UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest 5h 18m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 2h 35m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest 5h 51m 99% 87%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 58m Portland PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon 5h 13m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721 2h 05m Seattle SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 6h 22m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342 6h 12m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SMF 12:21AA 1677 6h 31m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 3h 06m Denver DEN 11:41 → SMF 13:19UA 2673 8h 19m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:45 → SEA 15:47AS 68 1h 15m Seattle SEA 17:02 → SMF 18:50AS 681 5h 05m 75% 54%
FrontierDetails → SFO 14:23 → LAS 16:12F9 2486 59m Las Vegas LAS 17:11 → SMF 19:00F9 4143 4h 37m 62% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON