Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 3440 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day AS 3440 SFO 07:08 → SNA 08:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3582 SFO 14:21 → SNA 16:04 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 07:08	SNA 08:49	8%	3%	1.4%	92%
OO 5405 SkyWest	SFO 07:30	SNA 09:24	9%	4%	1.2%	no record
OO 5763 SkyWest	SFO 08:35	SNA 10:16	16%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 09:28	SNA 11:11	17%	7%	1.2%	79%
UA 643 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	SNA 12:06	19%	9%	0.6%	82%
UA 2441 United Flight history →	SFO 12:22	SNA 14:02	20%	9%	0.6%	89%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:48	SNA 17:26	23%	7%	1.3%	85%
OO 5597 SkyWest	SFO 16:48	SNA 18:29	25%	9%	1.0%	no record
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:39	SNA 15:31	25%	9%	1.0%	80%
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:28	SNA 18:09	25%	9%	1.2%	71%
AS 3216 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:51	SNA 15:32	27%	9%	1.0%	74%
OO 3055 SkyWest	SFO 12:03	SNA 13:44	28%	9%	1.2%	no record
F9 3582 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 14:21	SNA 16:04	31%	13%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON