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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1905 United SFO 12:45 STL 18:56 27% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 3257 Southwest SFO 13:06 STL 19:06 32% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:03DL 2789 3h 02m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → STL 10:42DL 1289 8h 20m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 43m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 53m Houston IAH 08:01 → STL 10:17UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 8h 12m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:39 → MSP 12:19DL 2178 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:49DL 1224 8h 10m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:20 → DTW 13:54DL 772 2h 51m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 9h 04m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 19:16 → STL 20:04DL 2833 10h 14m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:05DL 543 8h 05m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:00 → STL 19:59AA 2487 6h 35m 62% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON