tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 00:05, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1484 United SFO 11:28 TPA 19:47 26% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 07:15 → TPA 11:26DL 2301 8h 04m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 17m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 7h 40m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 1h 43m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 8h 32m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:01 → EWR 08:39UA 2416 3h 55m Newark EWR 12:34 → TPA 15:42UA 1273 12h 41m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 7h 14m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 09:21 → TPA 16:38AA 1025 7h 48m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759 7h 58m 97% 81%
FrontierDetails → SFO 06:00 → DEN 09:46F9 1230 1h 37m Denver DEN 11:23 → TPA 16:59F9 2748 7h 59m 96% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON