Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5962 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:36	TUS 18:53	25%	9%	0.6%	76%
UA 5433 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:05	TUS 12:22	25%	8%	0.5%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920	2h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	97%	89%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 55m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	7h 32m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 09:20 → LAX 10:53DL 1421	3h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	99%	81%
United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	2h 58m Houston	IAH 09:32 → TUS 10:07UA 6219 · flown by Mesa	9h 22m	99%	81%
United Details →	SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387	1h 33m Houston	IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa	8h 27m	94%	78%
Alaska Details →	SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31AS 648	7h 28m	97%	73%
American Details →	SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584	8h 16m	98%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON