Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1680 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1680 SGF 06:00 → ATL 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 854 SGF 15:17 → ATL 18:16 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1680 Delta Flight history →	SGF 06:00	ATL 08:54	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 854 Delta	SGF 15:17	ATL 18:16	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4707 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 11:32	ATL 14:27	22%	12%	2.5%	78%
DL 4854 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:30	ATL 18:25	48%	22%	2.1%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON