Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3842 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3842 SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4311 SGF 18:45 → DFW 20:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3842 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 05:01	DFW 06:38	5%	4%	0.9%	93%
AA 3976 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:12	DFW 08:48	8%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 3913 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 09:36	DFW 11:02	10%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 3952 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 12:56	DFW 14:22	11%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 3624 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 08:14	DFW 09:54	11%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 4152 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 11:26	DFW 12:52	11%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 14:23	DFW 15:50	13%	4%	0.8%	78%
MQ 3591 Envoy	SGF 19:40	DFW 21:07	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 16:17	DFW 17:49	19%	5%	0.8%	68%
AA 4311 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 18:45	DFW 20:12	19%	4%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON