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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5532 SGF 06:19 → IAH 08:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4671 SGF 15:15 → IAH 17:31 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
OO 5532 SkyWest SGF 06:19 IAH 08:19 9% 8% 0.6% no record
OO 5767 SkyWest SGF 09:04 IAH 11:05 10% 7% 0.6% no record
OO 4671 SkyWest SGF 15:15 IAH 17:31 18% 9% 0.6% no record
UA 4852 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record SGF 06:15 IAH 08:17 15% 4% 0.9% 85%
UA 4996 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record SGF 17:08 IAH 19:10 22% 11% 2.2% 78%
UA 4574 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record SGF 15:15 IAH 17:17 28% 14% 3.3% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON