tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Springfield). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SGF 05:50 → DEN 06:57UA 5895 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 17m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SGF 06:00 → ATL 08:54DL 1680 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 02m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SGF 06:15 → IAH 08:17UA 4852 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 38m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SGF 09:03 → DEN 10:20UA 5898 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Denver DEN 13:28 → LAS 14:28UA 493 7h 25m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38AA 3842 · flown by Envoy 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:01 → LAS 10:03AA 1550 7h 02m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SGF 07:12 → DFW 08:48AA 3976 · flown by Envoy 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → LAS 11:52AA 1482 6h 40m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SGF 11:32 → ATL 14:27DL 4707 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 8h 20m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → SGF 13:33 → DEN 14:48UA 5541 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Denver DEN 16:13 → LAS 17:28UA 2424 5h 55m 94% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SGF 11:26 → DFW 12:52AA 4152 · flown by Envoy 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:40 → LAS 14:28AA 2376 5h 02m 72% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON