Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 4742 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day OO 4742 SGF 06:04 → ORD 07:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4732 SGF 18:29 → ORD 20:14 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 4742 SkyWest	SGF 06:04	ORD 07:49	11%	9%	2.0%	no record
AA 4129 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:15	ORD 09:05	17%	7%	1.4%	83%
MQ 3584 Envoy	SGF 10:47	ORD 12:34	18%	9%	1.4%	no record
OO 5407 SkyWest	SGF 11:30	ORD 13:18	25%	13%	2.0%	no record
MQ 3544 Envoy	SGF 15:45	ORD 17:28	28%	12%	1.4%	no record
OO 5686 SkyWest	SGF 15:15	ORD 17:07	28%	16%	2.1%	no record
OO 4732 SkyWest	SGF 18:29	ORD 20:14	31%	15%	2.1%	no record
UA 4421 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 07:45	ORD 09:40	19%	9%	4.9%	81%
UA 4525 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 11:19	ORD 13:12	33%	18%	3.3%	67%
UA 4466 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:07	ORD 17:02	35%	17%	5.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON