Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6419 SHV 06:01 → DFW 07:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 6410 SHV 18:37 → DFW 19:53 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6419 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 06:01	DFW 07:17	9%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SHV 09:58	DFW 11:09	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
OO 6331 SkyWest	SHV 11:46	DFW 13:02	11%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 6341 SkyWest	SHV 08:17	DFW 09:32	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3479 Envoy	SHV 14:15	DFW 15:26	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 18:37	DFW 19:53	18%	8%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON